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Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."

New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."